Joint modeling of longitudinal changes of pulse rate and body temperature with time to recovery of pneumonia patients under treatment: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of mortality worldwide and one of the most common lower respiratory tract infections that is contributing significantly to the burden of antibiotic consumption. The study aims to identify the determinants of the progress of pulse rate, body temperature and time to recovery of pneumonia patients. METHOD: A prospective cohort study design was used from Felege Hiwot referral hospital on 214 sampled pneumonia patients from March 01, 2022 up to May 31, 2022. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimate and Log-Rank test was used to compare the survival time. Joint model of bivariate longitudinal and time to event model was used to identify factors of longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature with time to recovery jointly. RESULT: As the follow up time of pneumonia patient's increase by one hour the average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature were decreased by 0.4236 bpm and 0.0119 [Formula: see text]. The average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature of patients who lived in rural was 1.4602 bpm and 0.1550 [Formula: see text] times less as compared to urban residence. Patients who had dangerous signs are significantly increased the average longitudinal change of pulse rate and body temperature by 2.042 bpm and 0.6031 [Formula: see text] as compared to patients who had no dangerous signs. A patient from rural residence was 1.1336 times more likely to experience the event of recovery as compared to urban residence. The estimated values of the association parameter for pulse rate and body temperature were -0.4236 bpm and -0.0119 respectively, which means pulse rate and body temperature were negatively related with patients recovery time. CONCLUSION: Pulse rate and body temperature significantly affect the time to the first recovery of pneumonia patients who are receiving treatment. Age, residence, danger sign, comorbidity, baseline symptom and visiting time were the joint determinant factors for the longitudinal change of pulse rate, body temperature and time to recovery of pneumonia patients. The joint model approach provides precise dynamic predictions, widespread information about the disease transitions, and better knowledge of disease etiology.

Joint Modeling of Blood Pressure Measurements and Survival Time to Cardiovascular Disease Complication among Hypertension Patients Follow-up at DebreTabor Hospital, Ethiopia.

Introduction: Hypertension is also referred to as a silent killer and a leading factor for cardiovascular disease complication in the world today. This study aimed to identify the factors that affect longitudinal outcomes and survival time for cardiovascular disease complications among patients with hypertension. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted among a randomly selected sample of 178 outpatients with hypertension at the Debre Tabor Specialized Hospital between September 2017 and December 2019. Three different models were used to analyze the data: the bivariate mixed-effects model, Cox proportional hazard model, and bivariate joint model for longitudinal and survival sub-models linked by shared random effects. Results: Bivariate mixed-effects and Cox proportional hazards survival sub-models were jointly preferred based on the minimum Akaike Information Criterion value. The estimated values of the association parameters were 0.0655 (p = 0.0270) and 0.963 (p = 0.0387), indicating that the association between systolic and diastolic blood pressure with time to event was guaranteed. The joint bivariate mixed-effects model analysis showed that patients with hypertension with a family history of hypertension and clinical stage II hypertension have a high chance of developing cardiovascular disease complications and have high average systolic and diastolic blood pressure compared to their counterparts. Patients with hypertension and diabetes have higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure than their counterparts. Conclusion: Generally, systolic and diastolic blood pressure stabilized over the follow-up period of treatment, while sex and residence were statistically insignificant to the survival time of cardiovascular disease complication. Health professionals and concerned bodies should therefore focus on patients with comorbidities, older age, and poor adherence to hypertension control and cardiovascular disease complications using technology, such as text messaging, and mobile application to promote cardiovascular health at early stage. It is important to provide early interventions for these groups of people, especially for those with family history.

Multilevel analysis of women's education in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Women's education is the base for faster economic growth, longer life expectancy, lower population growth, improved quality of life, and a high rate of investment return in developing countries. Historically, girls were denied opportunities for schooling in most of the regions and societies of Ethiopia. So this study targeted a multilevel analysis of women's education in Ethiopia using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. METHODS: Secondary data on women's data sets were obtained from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. A population-based cross-sectional study design was used for the survey. The sampling technique used for the survey was the two-stage sampling technique, which is stratified in the first stage and equal probability systematic selection technique in the second stage. The multi-level ordinal logistic regression model was fitted to identify the determinants of women's education in Ethiopia. RESULTS: Among the random sample of 17137 women, the majority, 65.6 percent were rural residents. Somali regional state (75.3 percent) and the capital city Addis Ababa (8.6 percent) had the highest and lowest percentages of women illiteracy respectively than the remaining administrative units of Ethiopia. The minimum values for the fit statistics and the indicative value of the intra-class correlation (68.3%) of the multilevel model showed its appropriateness to the data. Among the predictors in the final multilevel ordinal logistic regression analysis, women's age at first marriage, residence, and family's wealth index were significant predictors of women's education in Ethiopia. Moreover, the estimates from the random effect result revealed that there is more variation in women's education between the enumeration areas than within the enumeration areas. CONCLUSION: A multi-level ordinal logistic regression analysis has determined higher-level differences in women's education that could not be addressed by a single-level approach. So, the application of standard models by ignoring this variation ought to embrace spurious results, then for such hierarchical data, multilevel modeling is recommended.

Discrepancies of recurrent birth intervals using longitudinal data analysis in Ethiopia: interim EDHS 2019.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether the birth interval changes differently over time among women in Ethiopia and whether the change depends on women, children and household characteristics measured at the last visit. METHODS: Longitudinal study design was implemented based on the data obtained from the 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey consisting of a total of 3630 mothers. Generalised estimating equation and generalised linear mixed model were employed to estimate the effect of the determinants given the correlation between birth intervals within a mother is under consideration. RESULTS: The majority of women were Muslims (48.1%) and come from rural areas (82.2%). About 77.2% of women at first birth were below 20 years old. A significant correlation (p value <0.0001) between the first and second birth intervals of mothers was observed. The estimated birth interval of women from the poorest household was 0.877 (e-0.1317) times the estimated birth intervals of women from the richest household. This indicates richest households were likely to have higher birth intervals as compared with the poorest households (95% CI e-0.1754=0.839 to e-0.088=0.916). CONCLUSION: The birth intervals of over one-fifth of mothers were 1 year, less than the birth interval recommended by the WHO standard. It was also perceived that successive birth intervals are correlated. Mothers who have delivered female children had lower birth intervals than mothers who have delivered male children. As compared with the birth intervals of mothers from a household with higher economic status, the birth intervals of mothers from a household with lower economic status had lower birth intervals. In this study, significant effects of religion, contraceptive use, region, mothers' current age, education level and mothers' current marital status on birth intervals were also noted.

Survival time to complications of congestive heart failure patients at Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized referral hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUNDS: Congestive heart failure is a serious chronic condition when the heart's muscles become too damaged and a condition in which one or both ventricles cannot pump sufficient blood to meet the metabolic needs of the body. This study aimed to identify factors affecting the complications time of congestive heart failure patients treated from January 2016 to December 2019 at Felege Hiwot comprehensive specialized referral hospital in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. METHODS: A hospital-based retrospective data collection was collected from the medical charts of 218 randomly selected congestive heart failure patients. The Kaplan-Meier curve and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to compare and identify the factors associated with time to complication in patients with congestive heart failure. RESULTS: The median complication time of congestive heart failure patients was 22 months [95% CI: 21.98-28.01]. About 194 (88.99%) of the patients were complicated. The Kaplan-Meier curve depicts the survival probability of complicated patients decreasing as the complication time increases. The hazard ratios for serum sodium concentration, left ventricular ejection fraction, patients from rural areas, age of patients, serum hemoglobin concentration, and New York heart association classes I, II, and III were given 0.94 [95% CI: 0.90-1.00], 0.74 [95% CI: 0.65-0.85], 0.75 [95% CI: 0.68-0.84], 1.28 [95% CI: 1.12-1.46], 0.89 [95% CI: 0.85-0.94], 0.44 [95% CI: 0.36-0.53], 0.54 [95% CI: 0.47-0.62] and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.65-0.81] respectively, and they are statistically associated with the complication time of congestive heart failure patients. CONCLUSIONS: The median complication time of congestive heart failure patients was 22 months. This study strongly suggests that healthcare awareness should be strengthened earlier about the potential complications for patients with lower serum sodium concentrations below the threshold and aged congestive heart failure patients to reduce the risk of developing complications.

Bivariate binary analysis on composite index of anthropometric failure of under-five children and household wealth-index.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition is the most common cause of mortality and morbidity of children in low and middle income countries including Ethiopia and household wealth index shares the highest contribution. Thus, in this study it is aimed to conduct bivariate binary logistic regression analysis by accounting the possible dependency of child composite index anthropometric failure and household wealth index. METHODS: In this study the data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2016 involved 9411 under five children was considered. Child Composite Index Anthropometric Failure (CIAF) measures the aggregate child undernourished derived from the conventional anthropometric indices (stunting, underweight and wasting). The correlation between CIAF and wealth index was checked and significant correlation found. To address the dependency between the two outcome variables bivariate binary logistic regression was used to analyze the determinants of child CAIF and household wealth index jointly. RESULTS: Study results show that region, place of residence, religion, education level of women and husband/partner, sex of child, source of drinking water, household size and number of under five children in the household, mothers body mass index, multiple birth and anemia level of child had significant association with child CIAF. Female children were 0.82 times less likely to be CIAF compared to male and multiple birth children were more likely to be CIAF compared to single birth. Children from Oromia, Somalie, Gambela, SNNPR, Harari and Addis Ababa region were 0.6, 0.56, 0.67, 0.52, 0.6 and 0.44 times less likely to be CIAF compared to Tigray. A household from rural area were 15.49 times more likely poor compared to a household. The estimated odds of children whose mothers attended primary, and secondary and higher education was 0.82, and 0.52 times respectively the estimated odds of children from mothers who had never attended formal education. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of children with composite index anthropometric failure was high and closely tied with the household wealth index. Among the determinants, region, religion, family education level, and anemia level of child were statistically significant determinants of both CIAF and household wealth index. Thus, the authors recommend to concerned bodies and policymakers work on household wealth index to reduce the prevalence of child composite anthropometric failure.

Determinants of under-nutrition among children under five years of age in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is one of the developing countries where child under-nutrition is prevalent. Prior studies employed three anthropometric indicators for identifying factors of children's under-nutrition. This study aimed at identifying the factors of child under-nutrition using a single composite index of anthropometric indicators. METHODS: Data from Ethiopia's Demographic and Health Survey 2016 was the base for studying under-nutrition in a sample of 9494 children below 59 months. A single composite index of under-nutrition was created from three anthropometric indices through principal component analysis recoded into an ordinal outcome. In line with World Health Organization 2006 Child Growth Standards, the three anthropometric indices involve z-score of height-for-age (stunting), weight-for-height (wasting) and weight-for-age (underweight). Partial proportional odds model was fitted and its relative performance compared with some other ordinal regression models to identify significant determinants of under-nutrition. RESULTS: The single composite index of anthropometric indicators showed that 49.0% (19.8% moderately and 29.2% severely) of sampled children were undernourished. In the Brant-test of proportional odds model, the null hypothesis that the model parameters equal across categories was rejected. Compared to ordinal regression models, partial proportional odds model showed an improved fit. A child with mother's body mass index less than 18.5 kg, from poorest family and a husband without education, and male to be in a severe under-nutrition status was 1.4, 1.8 1.2 and 1.2 times more likely to be in worse under-nutrition status compared to its reference group respectively. CONCLUSION: Authors conclude that the fitted partial proportional odds model indicated that age and sex of the child, maternal education, region, source of drinking water, number of under five children, mother's body mass index and wealth index, anemic status of child, multiple births, fever of child before 2 months of the survey, mother's age at first birth, and husband's education were significantly associated with child under-nutrition. Thus, it is argued that interventions focus on improving household wealth index, food security, educating mothers and their spouses, improving maternal nutritional status, and increasing mothers' health care access.

Exploring the association of anthropometric indicators for under-five children in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Child undernutrition is a global health concern. Many studies have focused on the association of childhood undernutrition indicators with their predictors. A few studies have looked at relationship between the undernutrition indicators. This study aimed at investigating the possible association structures of childhood undernutrition indicators. METHODS: A log-linear model of cell counts of a three way table of stunting, wasting, and underweight was fitted based on the 2016 Ethiopia demographic health survey data. The variables of interest were generated based on the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standards as: stunted, wasted and underweight if z-scores of height-for-age, weight-for-height and weight-for age are below-2, respectively; otherwise not stunted, wasted and underweight. RESULTS: This study showed that 36.34, 12.09 and 24.87% were stunted, wasted and underweight out of sampled children respectively and the prevalence of total undernutrition in children was about 45.96%.The fitted log-linear model showed that underweight was associated with both stunting (P-value< 0.001), and wasting (P-value< 0.001). There was no association between stunting and wasting (P-value = 0.999). Furthermore, the model showed that there is no a three way interaction among stunting, wasting, and underweight (P-value = 1.000). CONCLUSION: The authors conclude that there is lack of three way association of stunting, wasting, and underweight. This confirms that the three anthropometric indicators of children have multi-dimensional nature. Thus, the concerned body should consider the three undernutrition indicators simultaneously to estimate the actual burden of childhood undernourishment as they are not redundant of each other.

Survival analysis of time to cure on multi-drug resistance tuberculosis patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is caused by bacteria that are resistant to the most effective anti-tuberculosis drug. The MDR-TB is an increasing global problem and the spread of MDR-TB has different recovery time for different patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the recovery time of MDR-TB patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia. METHOD: A retrospective study was carried out in seven hospitals having MDR-TB treatment center of Amhara region, Ethiopia from September 2015 to February 2018. An accelerated failure time and parametric shared frailty models were employed. RESULTS: The study revealed that the recovery time of MDR-TB patients in Amhara region was 21 months. Out of the total MDR-TB patients, 110 (35.4%) censored and 201 (64.6%) cured of MDR-TB. The clustering effect of frailty model was hospitals and the Weibull-gamma shared frailty model was selected among all and hence used for this study. The study showed that extra pulmonary MDR-TB patients had longer recovery time than that of seamier pulmonary MDR-TB patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia. According to this study, male MDR-TB patients, MDR-TB patients with co-morbidity and clinical complication were experiencing longer recovery time than that of the counter groups. This study also showed that MDR-TB patients with poor adherence had longer recovery time than those with good adherence MDR-TB patients. CONCLUSION: Among different factors considered in this study, MDR-TB type, clinical complication, adherence, co-morbidities, sex, and smoking status had a significant effect on recovery time of MDR-TB patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia. In conclusion, the Regional and Federal Government of Ethiopia should take immediate steps to address causes of recovery time of MDR-TB patients in Amhara region through encouraging adherence, early case detection, and proper handling of drug-susceptibility according to WHO guidelines.

Weighted log-linear models for service delivery points in Ethiopia: a case of modern contraceptive users at health facilities.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is among countries with low contraceptive usage prevalence rate and resulted in high total fertility rate and unwanted pregnancy which intern affects the maternal and child health status. This study aimed to investigate the major factors that affect the number of modern contraceptive users at service delivery point in Ethiopia. METHODS: The Performance Monitoring and Accountability2020/Ethiopia data collected between March and April 2016 at round-4 from 461 eligible service delivery points were in this study. The weighted log-linear negative binomial model applied to analyze the service delivery point's data. RESULTS: Fifty percent of service delivery points in Ethiopia given service for 61 modern contraceptive users with the interquartile range of 0.62. The expected log number of modern contraceptive users at rural was 1.05 (95% Wald CI: - 1.42 to - 0.68) lower than the expected log number of modern contraceptive users at urban. In addition, the expected log count of modern contraceptive users at others facility type was 0.58 lower than the expected log count of modern contraceptive users at the health center. The numbers of nurses/midwives were affecting the number of modern contraceptive users. Since, the incidence rate of modern contraceptive users increased by one due to an additional nurse in the delivery point. CONCLUSION: Among different factors considered in this study, residence, region, facility type, the number of days per week family planning offered, the number of nurses/midwives and number of medical assistants were to be associated with the number of modern contraceptive users. Thus, the Government of Ethiopia would take immediate steps to address causes of the number of modern contraceptive users in Ethiopia.

Bivariate longitudinal data analysis: a case of hypertensive patients at Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: Longitudinal data are often collected to study the evolution of biomedical markers. The study of the joint evolution of response variables concerning hypertension over time was the aim of this paper. A hospital based retrospective data were collected from September 2014 to August 2015 to identify factors that affect hypertensive. The joint mixed effect model with unstructured covariance was fitted. A total of 172 patients screened for antihypertensive drugs treated were longitudinally considered from Felege Hiwot referral. RESULTS: The joint mixed effect model with unstructured covariance (AIC: 12,236.9 with [Formula: see text] = 1007.8, P < 10-4) was significantly best fit to the data. The correlation between the evolutions of DBP and SBP was 0.429 and the evolution of the association between responses over-time was found 0.257. Among all covariates included in joint-mixed-effect-models, sex, residence, related disease and time were statistically significant on evolution of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. The joint modeling of longitudinal bivariate responses is necessary to explore the association between paired response variables like systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Fitting joint model with modern computing method is recommended to address questions for association of the evolutions with better accuracy.

A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of unmet need for family planning among all women aged (15-49) in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Unintended pregnancy related to unmet need is a worldwide problem that affects societies. The main objective of this study was to identify the prevalence and determinants of unmet need for family planning among women aged (15-49) in Ethiopia. METHODS: The Performance Monitoring and Accountability2020/Ethiopia was conducted in April 2016 at round-4 from 7494 women with two-stage-stratified sampling. Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. RESULTS: The prevalence of unmet-need for family planning was 16.2% in Ethiopia. Women between the age range of 15-24 years were 2.266 times more likely to have unmet need family planning compared to above 35 years. Women who were currently married were about 8 times more likely to have unmet need family planning compared to never married women. Women who had no under-five child were 0.125 times less likely to have unmet need family planning compared to those who had more than two-under-5. CONCLUSION: The key determinants of unmet need family planning in Ethiopia were residence, age, marital-status, education, household members, birth-events and number of under-5 children. Thus the Government of Ethiopia would take immediate steps to address the causes of high unmet need for family planning among women.

Prevalence and associated factors of TB/HIV co-infection among HIV Infected patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is one of the world's most common causes of death in the era of Human immunodeficiency virus. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and associated factors of TB/HIV co-infection. METHODS: Hospital based retrospective studies were conducted among adult HIV-positive patients. Logistic regression method and Chi square test were applied. RESULTS: A total of 571 HIV positive study participants were enrolled. Of these, 158 (27.7%) were found to have pulmonary tuberculosis. Lower baseline CD4 count<200cell/µl, patients who drunk alcohol, patients who were ambulatory at the initiation of ART, patients whose marital status was single were significant predictors for increased risk of tuberculosis in PLWHIV (P <0.05). Non smoker patients, patients in WHO clinical stage I, patients in WHO clinical stage II and ownership of the house had significant protective benefit against risk of TB (P <0.05). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection in adults on ART in our study was moderately high. Having advanced clinical status and presence of risk factors were found to be the predicting factors for co-infection. The health office should open TB/HIV co-infection units in the hospitals and health workers should be cautious when a patient has an advanced disease.